鉑族金屬供需及市場價(jià)格展望

摘要： 2016~2018年,在供需缺口和美元疲弱的支撐下,鉑族金屬價(jià)格震蕩走高,但鉑的表現(xiàn)要弱于鈀和銠?；谄嚧呋推渌I(yè)、首飾及投資等的需求,以及礦產(chǎn)和再生資源的供應(yīng),對(duì)鉑族金屬價(jià)格變化影響因素進(jìn)行了分析。結(jié)合全球貨幣政策、美元指數(shù)走勢及供需平衡的預(yù)測,對(duì)2020年鉑族金屬市場價(jià)格進(jìn)行展望。預(yù)計(jì)全球鉑供需將更加平衡或略有供給過剩,鈀將進(jìn)入供應(yīng)短缺的第10個(gè)年頭。國際現(xiàn)貨鉑價(jià)格將繼續(xù)呈區(qū)間震蕩走勢,價(jià)格有望觸及1200美元/盎司一線,之后將回調(diào);鈀和銠價(jià)格將延續(xù)強(qiáng)勁走勢,最高將觸及1350美元/盎司和2600美元/盎司。
The price of platinum-group metals(PGMs) surged higher during 2016~2018 due to poor supply and weak US dollar, and palladium and rhodium outperformed their peer, platinum. Based on the trends of global monetary policy and considering US dollar along with the supply-demand balance, PGMs market outlook in the year 2020 is presented herein. Global platinum supply and demand will be more balanced, even slightly oversupplied whereas palladium will enjoy a good 10 th year of supply shortage. The price for spot platinum will continue to flutuate in a range, and is expected to reach $1,200/oz and then will retreat. Palladium and rhodium price remains high and will hit $1,350/oz and $2,600/oz, respectively.