中國真實(shí)發(fā)展指標(biāo)測算及政策模擬

摘要： 克服了國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值(GDP)指標(biāo)的缺陷,真實(shí)發(fā)展指標(biāo)(GPI)為判斷經(jīng)濟(jì)的健康程度和地區(qū)發(fā)展趨勢提供了更為準(zhǔn)確的信息,實(shí)踐證實(shí)可作為GDP的首選替代?；贕PI理論與方法考察,構(gòu)建中國GPI指標(biāo)體系,估算中國1978~2014年GPI的時(shí)間序列數(shù)據(jù),并分經(jīng)濟(jì)開放度、減稅、城鎮(zhèn)化三個(gè)政策情景模擬我國的可持續(xù)發(fā)展趨勢,從而提出對策建議。
Genuine Progress Indicator(GPI) is one of the first alternatives to GDP vetted by the scientific community and used regularly by government and non-governmental organizations worldwide. GPI can be used to measure sustainable development like green GDP. The paper constructs China's GPI framework. GPI values of China from 1978 to 2014 are estimated based on the framework. Economic openness,tax cuts and growth in urbanization are simulated based on GPI value. Some policy suggestions are given finally. Policies aimed at reducing environmental costs are necessary if China is to enjoy a sustainable pattern of non-declining economic welfare. China must pursue a higher rate of productivity in material and energy consumption in order to keep environmental pressures to a minimum level.