利率市場(chǎng)化對(duì)貨幣政策有效性和經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整的影響

摘要： 本文通過(guò)構(gòu)建、校準(zhǔn)和模擬Stockman(1981)現(xiàn)金先行動(dòng)態(tài)隨機(jī)一般均衡模型(DSGE),解釋、分析和預(yù)測(cè)利率完全放開后,名義存款利率上升對(duì)我國(guó)宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)及宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)所產(chǎn)生的影響。模型的穩(wěn)態(tài)方程、脈沖響應(yīng)和數(shù)值模擬分析結(jié)果表明,名義存款利率上升通過(guò)提高存款實(shí)際利率和企業(yè)資本邊際成本將有效抑制投資和資本存量增長(zhǎng),提升消費(fèi)占GDP比重,從而有利于改善經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)并促進(jìn)經(jīng)濟(jì)可持續(xù)發(fā)展;在面對(duì)外部沖擊時(shí),利率上升可以減少宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)波動(dòng);貨幣政策沖擊對(duì)實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)影響的持續(xù)性增強(qiáng),貨幣政策利率傳導(dǎo)渠道更加通暢;利率上升將抑制投資并對(duì)宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)帶來(lái)負(fù)面沖擊的擔(dān)心,并沒有得到模型的支持。本文認(rèn)為,今后應(yīng)堅(jiān)定不移地穩(wěn)步推進(jìn)利率市場(chǎng)化改革。
By building,calibrating and simulating a DSGE model based on Stockman( 1981) Cash in Advance ( CIA) ,we explain,analysis and predict the macro-economy and economic structure outcomes of interest rate liberalization in China. The model’s steady state,impulse responses and simulation results show that higher real deposit rate and capital marginal cost will suppress investment and capital stock growth, increase the consumption ratio in GDP, which improves the economic structure and promote sustainable development; increasing interest rate can offset fluctuation facing shocks; the persistence of real economy to the reaction of monetary policy enhances,which means a better interest rate channel. We won’t worry about the negative effects on investments and economy as the model shows. We should steadily promote the interest rate liberalization reform,update traditional development concepts,promote capital efficiency and consumption role in economic growth with the interest rate liberalization, strengthen the price lever in monetary policy and realize a sustainable healthy development of China’s economy.