考慮后悔與失望行為的應(yīng)急方案選擇方法

摘要： 考慮到在應(yīng)急管理問題中,當(dāng)決策者需要進(jìn)行應(yīng)急方案選擇時(shí),會(huì)存在兩類心理行為:后悔心理行為和失望心理行為,針對(duì)具有混合多指標(biāo)信息的應(yīng)急方案選擇問題提出了一種新方法。首先,計(jì)算應(yīng)急方案關(guān)于傷亡人數(shù)、財(cái)產(chǎn)損失和社會(huì)影響等指標(biāo)信息的效用值。然后,考慮到?jīng)Q策者的兩類心理行為的特征,為確定不同的應(yīng)急方案的感知效用,分別提出計(jì)算方案后悔-欣喜值和失望-愉悅值的方法。進(jìn)一步地,考慮到不同應(yīng)急方案的投入成本不同,計(jì)算決策者關(guān)于不同方案的投入成本的感知效用。在此基礎(chǔ)上,根據(jù)不同應(yīng)急方案的總體感知效用值,進(jìn)行應(yīng)急方案的排序或優(yōu)選。最后,通過實(shí)例驗(yàn)證所提方法的可行性和有效性。
Considering that there are two kinds of psychological behaviors in emergency management when decision makers need to choose emergency plans. regret psychological behavior and disappointment psychological behavior, a new method for emergency plan selection with mixed information is proposed. Firstly, the utility value of emergency plan information about casualties, property losses and social impact is calculated.Then, considering the characteristics of two types of psychological behavior of decision makers, in order to determine the perceived utility of different emergency plans, the methods of calculating regret-rejoice value and disappointment-elation value are proposed respectively.In advance, considering the different input costs of different emergency plans, the perceived utility of decision makers about the input costs of different plans is calculated.On this basis, according to the overall perceived utility value of different emergency plans, emergency plans are ranked or optimized. Finally, an example is given to verify the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed method.