一種齊當別思想下的量子決策模型:對囚徒困境中的分離效應的解釋

摘要： 量子決策模型是近10年來提出的一種新型決策模型,用以解釋那些違背經(jīng)典決策模型的現(xiàn)象。雖然當前的量子決策模型能夠解釋囚徒困境中的分離效應,但其中卻存在一些困難,即會產(chǎn)生反常的概率關(guān)系以及無法精確擬合分離效應量較大的實驗結(jié)果。本研究在分析當前量子決策模型困難的基礎上,結(jié)合齊當別思想對模型進行改進和優(yōu)化。結(jié)果表明,研究所構(gòu)建的量子決策模型克服了當前模型中的困難,并且能夠預測囚徒困境博弈中由他人收益差距改變而引起的分離效應變化趨勢。本研究還是一次啟發(fā)式?jīng)Q策模型與計算式?jīng)Q策模型相結(jié)合的探索。
One of the most puzzling findings in decision research field is the disjunction effect. Several studies demonstrate that the disjunction effect exists in a two-person prisoner's dilemma game. This effect violates the sure-thing principle and cannot be explained by classical decision-making models. During the recent decade,quantum decision making models have been established on the basis of the mathematical structure and methodologies of quantum mechanics. Owing to their special theoretical structures, quantum decision-making models are well suited for explaining the disjunction effect, although these models continue to encounter difficulties.This study aims to overcome the difficulties in existing quantum decision-making models by developing a modified model. To achieve this goal, the deficiencies of the previous models were analyzed. We concluded three deficiencies: 1) Although previous quantum decision-making models can account for the disjunction effect,they can also obtain findings that defy the experimental results and common sense. 2) They cannot explain the disjunction effect with large values in certain experiments(e.g., the experiment of Shafir & Tversky, 1992). 3)They cannot properly illustrate the relationship between the utility of decision maker's pay off and the scale of the disjunction effect.The reasons for these difficulties were investigated. An important reason is that previous quantum decision-making models ignore that the decision maker may consider another's pay off based on different decision conditions. Another reason is the over-simplicity of the utility function. With the above analyses as basis, we adopted the equate-to-differentiate method to rebuild the quantum decision-making model. In this new model, whether the decision maker considers another's pay off or not based on a specific decision condition is determined with the equate-to-differentiate method. In addition, the utility function is redefined by value function and hyperbolic tangent transformation.Results revealed that the new quantum decision-making model overcomes the difficulties in previous quantum decision-making models. The proposed model is an integration of heuristic and computational or mathematical models. This ideal model integration deserves much attention and has good theoretical significance and application prospects.