基于累積前景理論的動(dòng)態(tài)應(yīng)急決策研究

摘要： 針對動(dòng)態(tài)多屬性風(fēng)險(xiǎn)型應(yīng)急決策問題,提出了一種基于累積前景理論和直覺模糊數(shù)的動(dòng)態(tài)決策方法。為保證評價(jià)信息的不確定性,采用直覺模糊數(shù)描述精確值、區(qū)間值、自然語言3種屬性統(tǒng)一化后的信息;結(jié)合時(shí)間度,將多屬性統(tǒng)一化的決策矩陣轉(zhuǎn)化為關(guān)于期望的動(dòng)態(tài)累積前景決策矩陣,依據(jù)各備選方案的綜合累積前景值選擇最佳的應(yīng)急方案。以高層建筑火災(zāi)應(yīng)急響應(yīng)為例,通過案例分析結(jié)果表明此應(yīng)急決策方法是可行和有效的。
Aiming at the dynamic multi-attribute risk emergency decision problem, a dynamic decision method based on cumulative foreground theory and intuitionistic fuzzy number is proposed. In order to ensure the uncertainty of the evaluation information, the intuitionistic fuzzy number is used to describe the information of the three values of the precise value, the interval value and the natural language. Combined with the time degree, the decision matrix of the unified multi-attribute is transformed into the expected dynamic cumulative foreground decision matrix. The best contingency plan is selected based on the comprehensive cumulative foreground value of each alternative. The case analysis of a high-rise building fire emergency response shows that the emergency decision method is feasible and effective.