基于改進決策功能派的智庫智囊團評價IAO模型及指標體系構建

摘要： [目的/意義]智庫建設離不開智囊團的打造,智囊團水平?jīng)Q定智庫的水平,依據(jù)決策功能派"最有效地表述具有非確定性的決策過程"的特點能較好吻合智庫智囊團非確定性的決策過程的特點,創(chuàng)新運用其來研究智庫資政的最具原創(chuàng)動力的核心部分——智囊團,不僅可以豐富智囊團資政分析的理論視角,還可以通過模型和指標的構建來指導智庫智囊團的資政實踐。[方法/過程]將決策功能派提出的行動維度細分為思維和實踐兩方面、結果維度融入情報要素、根據(jù)影響智囊團信息轉化為情報能力的要素,構成評價的情報、行動、結果三個維度的一級指標,同時形成評價智庫智囊團的IAO三維立體模型。在二級指標設計上,依照信息轉化為情報的增值原理量化了情報維度的自有信息量和自有信息量轉化效果;按照認識指導實踐的理論從思維和行動思考"行動"維度構成;并根據(jù)南京大學中國智庫研究與評價中心設計的MRPA智庫專家測評指標,量化了結果維度中智囊團對決策的主觀期待價值,最后結合調研與SPSS分析定量化篩選核心指標,從而形成I、A、O三個維度具體的指標體系。[結果/結論] IAO模型為描述和評價智囊團非確定性的決策過程提供了一個新的可觀察和可操作的參照指標,強化了智庫發(fā)展中人的核心地位與作用,拓展了智庫評價的視野和維度。
[Purpose/significance] The construction of think tank is inseparable from the building of brain trust. The level of brain trust determines the level of think tank. According to the characteristics of the decision-making functional school,which is the most effective way to express the uncertain decision-making process,it can better match the characteristics of the uncertain decision-making process of brain trust and innovatively use it to study the brain trust,the most original core part of think tank management,can not only enrich the theoretical perspective of brain trust management analysis,but also guide the management practice of brain trust through the construction of model and indicators. [Method/process] The action dimension proposed by the decisionmaking functionalist is divided into two aspects: thinking and practice,result dimension is integrated into intelligence elements,and elements that influence the ability of think tank to translate information into intelligence. It constitutes the first-level indicators of the three dimensions of intelligence,action and result evaluated in this paper. At the same time,it forms a three-dimensional IAO model for evaluating brain trust. In the design of secondary indicators,according to the value-added principle of information transformation into intelligence,we quantify the transformation effect of information dimension's own information quantity and its own information quantity; in accordance with the theory of knowledge guidance practice,we construct the dimension of thinking and action thinking"action"; and in accordance with the expert evaluation index of MRPA think tank designed by the Center for Research and Evaluation of China think tank of Nanjing University,we quantify the subjective expectation value of the brain trust to decisionmaking in the result dimension. Finally,the core indicators were quantitatively screened by combining research and SPSS analysis,thus forming a specific index system of three dimensions: I,A and O. [Result/conclusion] The model of IAO provides a new observable and operable reference index for describing and evaluating the uncertain decision-making process of the brain trust,strengthening the core position and role of think tank in human development,and expands the vision and dimension of think tank evaluation.