“公共均衡與非均衡”沖突新理論

摘要： 沖突是政治學(xué)、公共管理學(xué)、社會學(xué)和經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)等共同研究的中心課題,但既有的經(jīng)典理論主要誕生在西方,不僅缺乏本土性,也未能提供理解中國群體沖突的系統(tǒng)框架。在重新梳理經(jīng)典群體沖突理論的基礎(chǔ)上,或可提出基于"控制—反抗"邏輯的"公共均衡與非均衡"新理論,并通過大規(guī)模問卷調(diào)查驗(yàn)證該理論。新理論闡述了群體沖突產(chǎn)生和解決的基本邏輯,可同時(shí)解釋沖突發(fā)生和不發(fā)生,又能用統(tǒng)一的公式描述沖突動態(tài)演變的全過程,為理解和解決中國群體沖突提供了新框架。新理論認(rèn)為群體沖突是不同事件主體在舊公共均衡被打破的情況下重構(gòu)新公共均衡的過程。公共相對利益滿足感、公共維持或合作意愿、社會總約束力、公共可使用反抗力、公共反抗機(jī)會、社會總刺激六個(gè)核心變量共同決定了公共均衡值的大小和社會的和平或沖突狀態(tài)。當(dāng)公共均衡值大于1,社會整體和平或沖突基本解決;小于1,社會出現(xiàn)沖突;等于1,處于沖突邊緣;沖突發(fā)生、演進(jìn)與解決是六個(gè)變量共同作用的結(jié)果。因此構(gòu)建可包容公共均衡調(diào)整的強(qiáng)彈性社會應(yīng)是我國當(dāng)前社會轉(zhuǎn)型的目標(biāo),新理論為進(jìn)一步推動我國群體沖突理論的發(fā)展和實(shí)證研究奠定了基礎(chǔ)。
Conflict is a central topic common to research in political science,public administration,sociology and economics.However,existing classical conflict theory tends to emanate from the West;it not only lacks an indigenous Chinese character,but also fails to provide a systematic framework for understanding group conflicts in China.The reordering of classical group conflict theory enables us to propose a new theory of "public equilibrium and non-equilibrium "based on the logic of "control/resistance," and to verify it through a large-scale survey.The new theory expounds the basic logic of the generation and resolution of group conflict;it can simultaneously explain the occurrence and non-occurrence of conflict and can also describe the whole process of the dynamic evolution of conflict through a unified formula,thus providing a new framework for understanding and resolving group conflicts in China.The new theory holds that group conflict is a process whereby different actors in an event reconstruct a new public equilibrium in circumstances where the old public equilibrium has broken down.Six core variables—relative satisfaction of public interest;public maintenance or readiness to cooperate;total social constraints;available public resistance;opportunities for public resistance;and total social stimulus—determine the size of the public equilibrium value and whether society is in a state of peace or conflict.When the public equilibrium value is greater than 1,overall social peace or conflict is basically resolved;if it is less than 1,conflict appears in society;and when it is equal to 1,it is on the edge of conflict.The occurrence,evolution and resolution of conflict is the result of the joint action of the six variables.Therefore,the current social transformation should aim to construct a highly flexible society,one that can accommodate the adjustment of public equilibrium. This new theory lays a foundation for further promoting the development of and empirical research on group conflict theory in China.