中國社會核算矩陣的乘數(shù)分解研究

摘要： 文章利用《中國統(tǒng)計年鑒》和投入產(chǎn)出表相關(guān)數(shù)據(jù),基于社會核算矩陣乘數(shù)分解模型,測算了中國經(jīng)濟(jì)系統(tǒng)中活動賬戶、要素賬戶、部門賬戶等內(nèi)生賬戶的乘數(shù),并利用Stone加性形式將賬戶乘數(shù)矩陣分解為初始的注入、轉(zhuǎn)移乘數(shù)效應(yīng)的凈貢獻(xiàn)、開環(huán)或交叉乘數(shù)效應(yīng)的凈貢獻(xiàn)、循環(huán)或閉環(huán)乘數(shù)效應(yīng)的凈貢獻(xiàn)這四部分之和。研究結(jié)果發(fā)現(xiàn):(1)紡織業(yè)、服裝皮革羽絨及其他纖維制品制業(yè)、農(nóng)業(yè)等賬戶乘數(shù)值較大,對促進(jìn)就業(yè),調(diào)節(jié)要素收入的分配方面的影響力較大。(2)各賬戶乘數(shù)分解項的大小次序與各賬戶的乘數(shù)的大小次序并不一致。從各賬戶乘數(shù)效應(yīng)的分解值來看,轉(zhuǎn)移乘數(shù)效應(yīng)的凈貢獻(xiàn)最大的賬戶是服裝皮革羽絨及其他纖維制品制業(yè);開環(huán)或交叉乘數(shù)效應(yīng)的凈貢獻(xiàn)最大的賬戶是農(nóng)業(yè);循環(huán)或閉環(huán)乘數(shù)效應(yīng)的凈貢獻(xiàn)最大的賬戶是農(nóng)業(yè)。
This paper uses data from China Statistical Yearbook and Input-Output Table,and social accounting matrix multiplier decomposition model to calculate the multiplier of endogenous accounts such as activity account,factor account and sector account in China's economic system. And then the paper employs the Stone additive form to decompose the account multiplier matrix into the sum of the four parts:the net contribution of the initial injection multiplier effect,the transfer multiplier effect,the open-loop or cross-loop multiplier effect,and the cyclic or closed-loop multiplier effect. The results show that 1) textile industry,clothing,leather,down and other fiber products industry,agriculture,etc. have larger account multiplier value,which produces comparatively greater impact on promoting employment and adjusting factor income distribution;2) the size order of the multiplier decomposition items for each account is not consistent with the magnitude order of the multiplier for each account. Seen from the decomposition value of the multiplier effect of various accounts,the net contribution of the transfer multiplier effect is the largest in clothing,leather,down and other fiber products;the largest net contribution from the open-loop or cross-multiplier effect is accounted for by agriculture;the account with the largest net contribution for the cyclic or closed-loop multiplier effect is agriculture.