“全面二孩”背景下區(qū)域?qū)W前教育資源供需格局及其應(yīng)對

摘要： 運用灰色GM(1,1)預測模型等方法,對"全面二孩"背景下我國四大區(qū)域?qū)W前教育學位需求數(shù)量及其時空分布變化進行預測,并在考察區(qū)域?qū)W前教育資源存量的基礎(chǔ)上,揭示"全面二孩"背景下區(qū)域?qū)W前教育資源的供需矛盾變化,從而提出相應(yīng)的政策建議。運用灰色GM(1,1)預測模型等方法,對"全面二孩"背景下我國四大區(qū)域?qū)W前教育學位需求數(shù)量及其時空分布變化進行預測,并在考察區(qū)域?qū)W前教育資源存量的基礎(chǔ)上,揭示"全面二孩"背景下區(qū)域?qū)W前教育資源的供需矛盾變化,從而提出相應(yīng)的應(yīng)對建議。研究表明:在"全面二孩"背景下,各區(qū)域適齡學前兒童數(shù)量均呈現(xiàn)出先揚后抑的倒"U"型曲線分布;但是,各區(qū)域之間學前教育資源供需具有一定的不平衡性,存在明顯的"中部塌陷"傾向。因此,一方面,我們要深刻認識"全面二孩"政策所帶來的適齡學前兒童入園壓力,多渠道擴充辦園資源總量;著力補齊中部地區(qū)資源供給短板,推動區(qū)域?qū)W前教育協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展。另一方面,也要清醒地認識到"全面二孩"入園高峰過后適齡學前兒童數(shù)量回落所帶來的潛在影響,采取必要的應(yīng)急性干預政策,以保證學前教育穩(wěn)定、可持續(xù)發(fā)展。
By applying grey GM(1,1) forecasting model and other approaches, this article makes a prediction on the demand quantity of preschool education resources as well as the spatial and temporal distribution change in China's four major regions under the background of "Universal Two-Child" policy. On the basis of the investigation of regional preschool education resources stock, this article indicates the conflict change of supply and demand of regional preschool education resources under the background of "Universal Two-Child" policy, so as to propose corresponding policy suggestion. Research shows that under the background of "Universal Two-Child" policy, the number of preschool children in the region presents an inverted "U" curve distribution, which goes up first and then drops down; but there is a certain imbalance between the supply and demand of preschool education resources among the four regions, existing a clear tendency of "central collapse". Therefore, on the one hand, we have to realize the pressure brought to preschool children by the "Universal Two-Child" policy, and we should expand the school resources through various ways; short plate of the resource supply in central region should be made up, so as to promote the coordinated development of regional preschool education. On the other hand, we should also be clearly aware of the potential influence brought by the decline in the number of preschool children after the admission peak of "Universal Two-Child", and adopt the necessary emergency intervention policies to ensure the stability and sustainable development of preschool education.