基于面板協(xié)整檢驗(yàn)的地區(qū)學(xué)前教育發(fā)展實(shí)證研究

摘要： 基于隴南市各縣區(qū)2003-2016年的動(dòng)態(tài)面板數(shù)據(jù),利用經(jīng)濟(jì)計(jì)量預(yù)測分析軟件Eviews8.0建立面板數(shù)據(jù)協(xié)整模型,實(shí)證分析隴南市各縣區(qū)學(xué)前教育在園幼兒數(shù)、專任教師數(shù)、校舍面積數(shù)和當(dāng)?shù)亟?jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展水平之間的協(xié)整關(guān)系.研究結(jié)果表明:在園學(xué)生數(shù)與專任教師數(shù)、校舍面積數(shù)、當(dāng)?shù)厝司鵊DP在統(tǒng)計(jì)上存在長期均衡關(guān)系.在保持其他變量不變的情況下,專任教師數(shù)每增加1%,在園學(xué)生數(shù)平均增加0.093348%;校舍面積數(shù)每增加1%,在園學(xué)生數(shù)平均增加0.158417%;人均GDP每增加1%,在園學(xué)生數(shù)平均增加0.604851%.從教育經(jīng)濟(jì)和辦學(xué)指標(biāo)要求看,這種長期均衡關(guān)系有其解釋意義.影響隴南學(xué)前教育發(fā)展規(guī)模的主要因素是地區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展水平,充足的校舍面積可以滿足日益增多的學(xué)齡兒童入園,配備足額的專任教師可以保證學(xué)前教育的發(fā)展質(zhì)量.
Based on dynamic panel data from 2003 to 2016,this paper applies panel cointegration model by Eviews 8.0 to analyze the co-integration relationship among numbers of children,full-time teachers,building area and local economic development level of preschool education of every districts of Longnan city.The results show that there is long-term equilibrium relation among the numbers of children in kindergarten,full-time teachers,building area and local per capita GDP.When other variables remain unchanged,each increment of one percent in the numbers of full-time teachers results in an increase of 0.093348% for the numbers of children;the numbers of building area ascend one percent and the numbers of children increases 0.158417%;per capita GDP increases one percent and the numbers of children is raise 0.604851%.According to the education economy and schooling index,this long-term equilibrium relation exhibits explain meaning.These results indicate that the main factors influence the development scale of Longnan preschool education is local economic development level,ample building area can meet the demands of increasing school children,and amount of full-time teachers can ensure the development quality of preschool education.