基于分眾模式的多部門大群體應急決策方法

摘要： 針對以往應急決策大多依靠部門專家而忽略公眾參與的問題,提出一種新的多部門大群體應急決策方法,將公眾引入應急決策中.首先,各部門專家給出方案指標值,公眾給出指標偏好值,各部門根據top N規(guī)則對公眾進行篩選;其次,利用偏好邏輯評分(LSP)方法將方案指標值與指標偏好值相融合,得到方案總得分;再次,引入雙論域上的決策粗糙集理論,將部門專家給出的方案損失值與方案總得分相結合,根據決策規(guī)則選出正域上的方案集,對突發(fā)事件進行響應;最后,通過算例分析與對比驗證所提出方法的有效性.
Aiming at the problem that emergency decision making mostly relies on experts in the department and ignores the public, we put the public into the emergency decision making, and then propose a new multi-department large group emergency decision making method. Firstly, experts give attributes' values of the alternatives, while the public give their preferences of the attributes. The departments choose the public clusters based on the top N rule. Then, combining the attributes' values of the alternatives with preferences of the attributes, the total score of alternatives is got by using the method of logic scoring of preference(LSP). Furthermore, decision-theoretical rough set in two universes is introduced,and the loss values of alternatives given by experts are combined with total score of alternatives. The alternatives in positive universe are selected according to the decision rule to respond to the emergency. Finally, an example is given to illustrate the effective of the proposed method.