個人特質(zhì)、行為偏好與相對收益:特朗普臺海政策剖析

摘要： 從領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人特質(zhì)分析的研究視角而言,特朗普個人特質(zhì)和職業(yè)經(jīng)歷對其內(nèi)政外交決策的影響較為顯著,特別是其臺海政策更具攻擊性、多變性和破壞性。由于中美在臺灣問題上的博弈模式廣受關(guān)注,且美方有蔡英文當局的無條件配合,為特朗普進一步將臺灣問題"籌碼化"、最大限度榨取相對收益提供了較大空間。未來特朗普在臺灣問題上的一系列動作,不僅會加劇臺海局勢的波動,還將對中美關(guān)系產(chǎn)生長期的消極影響。
From the theoretical perspective of leadership trait-based research, we have found that Trump's personal qualities and career experience have had a significant impact on his domestic and foreign policy decisions, especially on his Taiwan policies which tend to be more aggressive, variable and disruptive. As the game model between China and the United States on the Taiwan issue has attracted wide attention, and the United States has enjoyed unconditional cooperation with Tsai ing-wen authorities, more room has been provided for Trump to further his "leverage" with the Taiwan issue and maximize the relative profits. Therefore, it is foreseeable that Trump's series of actions on the Taiwan issue will not only exacerbate the volatile situation in the Taiwan Strait, but also but also will have a long-term negative impact on Sino-US relations.