不確定環(huán)境下考慮群體沖突與指標(biāo)關(guān)聯(lián)的應(yīng)急群決策

摘要： 針對(duì)不確定環(huán)境下的應(yīng)急群決策問題,提出一種新的基于語義信息的考慮群體沖突與指標(biāo)關(guān)聯(lián)的應(yīng)急群決策模型。利用自由語義信息與可能性分布—猶豫模糊語言集刻畫并處理不確定信息;提出一種基于可能性分布—猶豫模糊語言集的群體意見沖突檢測(cè)與調(diào)整算法,降低了專家群體的意見沖突水平;提出一種新的基于決策試驗(yàn)和評(píng)價(jià)實(shí)驗(yàn)室與網(wǎng)絡(luò)層次分析方法的指標(biāo)關(guān)聯(lián)權(quán)重確定方法;考慮決策專家的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)偏好,提出一種基于前景理論的逼近理想解排序算法。以某高鐵車站應(yīng)對(duì)大量旅客滯留突發(fā)事件為例,驗(yàn)證了所提模型的有效性與科學(xué)性。
n terms of uncertain Emergency Group Decision-Making(EGDM),a novel EGDM model considering the conflicts of Decision Makers(DMs)'opinions and the correlation of evaluation indexes was proposed in the semantic environment,which overcame the disadvantages of existing studies from the following four aspects:the ContextFree Grammar Judgement(CFGJ)and Possibility Distribution-Hesitant Fuzzy Linguistic Term Set(PD-HFLTS)were utilized to characterize the uncertain information;a detecting and adjusting algorithm of group opinions' conflict based on PD-HFLTS was put forward to reduce the conflict level among DMs;a novel method for determination of indexes' correlation weight was proposed based on DEMATEL and ANP;a novel Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to an Ideal Solution(TOPSIS)method based on prospect theory was put forward to rank the alternatives.The feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed model was illustrated by the example of a high-speed railway station copying with a large number of stranded passengers.