基于賬戶參考利率的FISIM對(duì)GDP與收入分配的影響研究

摘要： 本文從使用者成本的角度解析參考利率,并根據(jù)2008年SNA構(gòu)建用于我國(guó)FISIM核算的賬戶參考利率,利用實(shí)際數(shù)據(jù)核算并分?jǐn)偓F(xiàn)價(jià)FISIM總產(chǎn)出;借鑒聯(lián)合國(guó)國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)核算工作組關(guān)于FISIM價(jià)格指數(shù)的思想,結(jié)合我國(guó)存貸款特點(diǎn),構(gòu)建存貸款服務(wù)價(jià)格指數(shù),并縮減現(xiàn)價(jià)FISIM;最后,分析現(xiàn)價(jià)FISIM對(duì)GDP與收入分配的影響,并探究不變價(jià)FISIM對(duì)實(shí)際GDP的影響。研究結(jié)果表明,住戶部門(mén)分?jǐn)偟腇ISIM與凈出口分?jǐn)偟腇ISIM會(huì)增加GDP。各機(jī)構(gòu)部門(mén)的初次分配總收入和可支配總收入也因增加值、財(cái)產(chǎn)收入及經(jīng)常轉(zhuǎn)移等的變化而相應(yīng)變化。不變價(jià)FISIM對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)波動(dòng)率的影響大于其對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)率的影響。
This paper analyzes the reference rates from the perspective of user cost, constructs the account reference rates for China's FISIM based on the SNA 2008, and calculates and apportions the current FISIM total output using the actual data. Drawing on the ideas of the United Nations Working Group on National Accounts on the FISIM price index, and in view of the characteristics of China's deposits and loans, it builds up the price index of deposit and loan services, and deflates the FISIM at current prices. Finally, it studies the impact of FISIM at current prices on GDP and income distribution and explores the impact of FISIM at constant prices on GDP in real term. Based on the accounts and analysis, it is found that the share of FISIM from the household sector and the net export share of FISIM upswing the GDP, and the impact is greater on GDP than on gross national income. The initial distribution of gross and total disposable income in various institutional sectors also varies as the value added, property income and current transfers change. The impact of FISIM at constant prices is greater on the volatility rate of the real GDP growth than on the real GDP growth rate.