我國CPI對PPI只存在反向倒逼:理論分析與實證支持

摘要： 本文研究了CPI與PPI之間聯(lián)系機制,從理論上說明我國CPI對PPI的反向倒逼傳導(dǎo)機制。在實證研究中,指出了線性和非線性Granger因果檢驗等技術(shù)的不合理性,提出了用武-豪斯曼檢驗的方法可以檢驗CPI與PPI之間的傳導(dǎo)機制。研究發(fā)現(xiàn):在我國總體上并不存在由PPI到CPI的線性或非線性傳導(dǎo)機制;相反,我國只存在CPI對PPI的反向倒逼傳導(dǎo)機制,而且CPI上升1個百分點,PPI平均會上升0.25個百分點。實證結(jié)果給我們的啟示是,以燙平價格波動為目的的宏觀調(diào)控,從需求管理方面進行比較合理,從供給方面或者從需求和供給兩個方面進行混合調(diào)控是不合理的。
This paper studies the relation mechanism between CPI and PPI and illustrates the anti-driving conduction mechanism from CPI to PPI.Through empirical study,the paper points out the irrationality of linear or nonlinear Granger Test and holds that Hausman Test can be used to examine the conduction mechanism between CPI and PPI.The findings show that there is no linear or nonlinear conduction mechanism from PPI to CPI;On the contrary,there is anti-driving conduction mechanism from CPI to PPI.PPI rises by 0.25% with CPI rising by 1%.The empirical result shows that macro-control is rational in order to ironing price from the perspective of demand management and is irrational from the perspective of mixing control in price and demand &supply.