制度安排、GDP波動(dòng)與股市漲跌

摘要： 全球經(jīng)濟(jì)一體化的撲朔迷離,在一定程度上動(dòng)搖了中國(guó)投資者對(duì)"股市是國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)晴雨表"這一經(jīng)典理論的信奉。股市有時(shí)超前GDP(國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值)波動(dòng),有時(shí)滯后于GDP波動(dòng)的漲跌現(xiàn)象,通常是由宏微觀層面上制度安排和國(guó)內(nèi)外經(jīng)濟(jì)環(huán)境所導(dǎo)致的投資、消費(fèi)和出口這三駕馬車的基本格局所決定。從影響投資、消費(fèi)和出口的制度安排來(lái)看,投資規(guī)模變動(dòng)依賴于制度的程度要大于消費(fèi),而出口規(guī)模變動(dòng)對(duì)制度的依賴,則取決于國(guó)際間的制度安排;GDP波動(dòng)與股市漲跌在長(zhǎng)期內(nèi)具有較高的相關(guān)性,但在短期內(nèi)有時(shí)并不具有明顯的相關(guān)性;股市漲跌在很大程度上取決于特定時(shí)空上的制度安排和市場(chǎng)機(jī)制所決定的資金與籌碼的供求關(guān)系。
Global economic integration confusing,to some extent,has shaken the Chinese investors to believe in the classical theory of the stock market is a barometer of the national economy.Stock market volatility is usually determined by the basic pattern of the macro and micro level institutional arrangements and domestic and international economic environment caused by investment,consumption and exports.Judging from the institutional arrangements,changes in the scale of investment depends on the extent of the institution is greater than consumption,and changes in the scale of export dependence on the institution,depends on international institutional arrangements.GDP volatility has a high correlation with the stock market ups and downs in the long term.The stock markets largely depend on the supply and demand of special funds and chips.This paper analyzes the different policy effects of long-term and short-term stock market ups and downs,examines the institutional arrangements,GDP fluctuations and in the stock market ups and downs.This article attempts to build an analytical framework capital and chips the proportion of the stock market ups and downs.