GDP核算口徑下投入產(chǎn)出表調(diào)整與預測方法研究

摘要： 我國公布的投入產(chǎn)出表與GDP核算兩套數(shù)據(jù)存在脫節(jié),主要表現(xiàn)為投入產(chǎn)出表的增加值與GDP不一致,投入產(chǎn)出表分配法增加值的分項值與GDP分項值不一致,投入產(chǎn)出表支出法分項值與GDP分項值不一致。本文重點研究了三種方法:如何將已公布投入產(chǎn)出表年度數(shù)據(jù)調(diào)整到與GDP核算口徑一致的方法;如何推算兩次已公布數(shù)據(jù)年度中間的未公布數(shù)據(jù)年度的投入產(chǎn)出表的方法;如何編制后續(xù)未公布數(shù)據(jù)年度的投入產(chǎn)出延長表的方法。本文采用這些方法,編制了與GDP口徑相一致的中國1992～2010年8部門投入產(chǎn)出供給表和使用表。
There is a disconnect issue of input-output table of China and GDP accounting data,mainly as there exist inconsistency on value-added by sector between IOTs and accounting data,on distribution method added value between IOTs and accounting data,on spending method added value between IOTs and accounting data.This paper focuses on the three methods: First,the method how to adjust the data of IOTs published by the national bureau of statistics to GDP accounting caliber.Second,the method how to calculate IOTs unpublished of the middle of year two published data.Third,the method how to compile Input-Output Extend Tables subsequent not released data annual.Then adopt these methods,compile supply and use tables of year from 1992 to 2010.