中國GDP增長與CPI:關(guān)系、均衡與“十二五”預(yù)期目標(biāo)調(diào)控

摘要： 通貨膨脹率和經(jīng)濟(jì)增長率之間動態(tài)關(guān)系的認(rèn)識是宏觀調(diào)控的基礎(chǔ),然而,目前在線性和靜態(tài)的分析框架內(nèi)未能揭示出通貨膨脹和經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的復(fù)雜動態(tài)關(guān)系。本文運(yùn)用1996—2009年GDP增長率、CPI與M2增長率的季度數(shù)據(jù)建立我國經(jīng)濟(jì)增長與通貨膨脹的非線性動力系統(tǒng)模型(GDP-CPINLDS),揭示了我國最優(yōu)的季度GDP增長率和CPI,以及零通貨膨脹的季度GDP增長率?？傮w上,我國經(jīng)濟(jì)增長與通貨膨脹處在次優(yōu)化的非均衡運(yùn)行狀態(tài),兩者呈現(xiàn)出同向性變動的特點(diǎn)。最優(yōu)調(diào)控實(shí)驗(yàn)表明,僅調(diào)節(jié)M2增長率不能完全實(shí)現(xiàn)"十二五"調(diào)控目標(biāo)。文章建議"十二五"期間要以調(diào)控GDP增長為導(dǎo)向,以從緊貨幣政策為基礎(chǔ),配合多種調(diào)控手段,形成強(qiáng)有力的聯(lián)合調(diào)控機(jī)制,以確保GDP增長率和CPI目標(biāo)的最優(yōu)實(shí)現(xiàn)。
The dynamic relationship between inflation and economic growth is the basis for the macro-control , however,there isn’t a clear and valid result about the complex relationship between inflation rate and GDP growth in linear and static framework. This paper builds the inflation and GDP growth’s nonlinear dynamic system model (GDP-CPINLDS) based on Mar. 1996—Dec. 2009 GDP growth, CPI and M2 growth rate of quarterly data. The empirical results reveal that China’s optimal growth rate of GDP and CPI is 10.51% and 2.06%, and the GDP growth rate without inflation is 8.92%. As a whole,China’s economic growth and inflation stay in sub-optimal and non-equilibrium operation state, both moves towards the same direction. Optimal control experiments showed that the only control M2 growth rate can not be fully realized target, GDP growth must focus in order to achieve "the twelfth five-year-plan"target and to minimize social loss. Therefore,we recommend that GDP growth should be oriented to control, and tight monetary policy is based, at the same time, established joint control of a strong mechanism with a variety of means of control, to ensure that the GDP growth and CPI target to achieve precise in "the twelfth five-year-plan" period .